The United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD), yesterday, said global trade was on the way to recovery, and might hit $32 trillion before the end of 2024 as the first half of the year showed positive results.
It, however, said the development in Africa remained pessimistic as the continent’s exports decreased by five per cent amidst stagnated growth in Europe.
UNCTAD in an update on trade yesterday, noted that the positive trade dynamics for the United States and developing countries, particularly large Asian developing economies, was responsible for the growth.
The trade growth added approximately $250 billion to goods trade and $100 billion to services trade in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023.
The update kept global forecasts for gross domestic product growth at around three per cent for 2024, adding that the short-term trade outlook remained cautiously optimistic.
“If positive trends persist, global trade in 2024 could reach almost $32 trillion, yet it is unlikely to surpass its record level seen in 2022,” UNTAD said.
In the first quarter of 2024, global trade was primarily driven by increased exports from China, which accounted for nine per cent, India seven per cent and the US at three per cent.
The report noted that trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about two per cent in both imports and exports during the first quarter.
In comparison, the report noted that developed countries saw flat imports and a modest per cent rise in exports.
“Every year, however, South-South trade fell by five per cent when comparing the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024. Trade growth varied significantly across sectors, with green energy and AI-related products experiencing stronger increases,” the report said.
The trade value of high-performance servers rose by 25 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2023, while other computers and storage units saw an eight per cent increase, the report noted, adding that the trade value of electric vehicles also grew significantly, increasing by about 25 per cent.
